Mobile advertising will grow 38% in 2016 to US$71bn, while newspaper advertising will shrink 4% to US$68bn. Mobile advertising remains the driving force behind the growth of the entire advertising market, contributing 83% of all new ad dollars between 2014 and 2017.
Desktop internet advertising will continue to grow, but will lose market share for the first time this year, dropping from 19.8% of global ad spend in 2014 to 19.4%. By 2017 ZenithOptimedia forecasts desktop internet to account for 19.1% of global ad spend. Meanwhile mobile internet advertising’s share of the global ad market will rise from 5.7% in 2014 to 15.0% in 2017. Overall, internet advertising will account for 34.0% of global ad spend in 2017, slightly behind television’s 35.9%. The market share gap between the two media will narrow from 13.3 percentage points in 2014 to 1.9 in 2017. At this rate of growth, internet advertising will overtake television in 2018.
Print ad spend continues to decline across most of the world, as it has done since 2008. We predict newspaper ad spend will shrink by an average of 4.9% a year through to 2017, while magazine advertising will shrink by 3.2% a year. Their combined share of global ad spend has fallen from 39.4% in 2007 to 19.6% this year, and we expect it to fall further to 16.7% by 2017.
Global ad spend to grow 4.0% in 2015
ZenithOptimedia forecasts that global ad spend will grow 4.0% to reach US$554bn in 2015, and will accelerate to 5.0% growth in 2016, boosted by the 2016 Summer Olympics in Rio and the US Presidential elections. Ad spend will then slow down slightly in the absence of these events, growing 4.4% in 2017.
“Mobile technology is rapidly transforming the way consumers across the world live their lives, and is disrupting business models across all industries. We are now witnessing the fastest transition of ad budgets in history as marketers and agencies scramble to catch up with consumers’ embrace of the mobile way of life.”