However, the agency says global ad spend will increase 4% this year to $529.1 billion, down from its previous estimate of 4.5% growth.
Looking ahead to next year, GroupM predicts global ad spend will surpass $1 trillion for the first time, but cautions that ad growth will be limited, with the global ad market up 4.3% and U.S. ad spending ticking up 3%. That more measured growth is in part because 2017 is an odd-year and there is no infusion of ad dollars usually associated with even-year events, such as the Olympics or U.S. elections.
Among media categories, GroupM says a healthy TV ad marketplace is fueling positive growth in the U.S. ad market and the agency revised its TV growth rate to 3.4% this year from a previously forecasted 2.3%. Next year, it expects TV ad growth to slow to 2.1%. Similarly, GroupM expects terrestrial radio’s ad market to grow 3% this year and slow to 2% growth next year, while out-of-home advertising will tick up 2% this year and 3% in 2017. And while digital is showing the highest rates of growth (7.7% this year and 8.1% in 2017), GroupM notes that it is slowing.
Sizing up the U.S. market, the report notes: “The combination of global economic headwinds coupled with moderate domestic growth as well as continued procurement pressure to extract media efficiencies and cost savings will confine ad market potential to its current low-single digit growth levels.”
Among ad categories, GroupM says that most major sectors decreased U.S. ad spending in 2015, with the notable exceptions being pharmaceuticals, travel/tourism, leisure and apparel/accessories, which increased their ad outlays.
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