Advertising agencies have high hopes for the new year, with 43% saying they expect business to increase in Q1 2017, according to a new report by media technology firm Strata. In contrast, only 11% of agencies said they expect a drop in business.
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Issues outside of your control can hamper even the most effective marketing initiatives. While it’s a frustrating dynamic, it’s one that every marketer is likely to experience at some point.
External forces impact marketing efforts more frequently in cyclical industries. Businesses involved in sectors such as home furnishings, travel, energy, and durable goods like appliances all understand their success is often seasonally dependent. Even the best marketing initiatives will struggle in an off-season.
Nothing like a local research firm’s conference to get a sense of where we are with the local digital revolution. Speaking at LOAC West this week in San Francisco, Borrell Associates co-founder Gordon Borrell says that the lines of revenue between traditional and digital “are crossing right now. It will be obvious next year.”
Following a stronger than expected first half, Magna has revised its 2016 ad forecast. The IPG Media brands ad forecasting firm now anticipates total U.S. advertising revenues will jump 6.3% to $179 billion this year, the strongest growth rate since 2010’s 6.6% jump. That’s up from the 6.2% growth Magna called for in June. But without ad revenue from the election or Olympic games to lean on, ad growth will slow down to 1.6% in 2017, while still reflecting strong underlying advertising demand. If record-high political and Olympics revenue were factored out of the 2016 numbers, ad dollars would be up 4.4%, Magna says, similar to 2015’s 4.3% growth. And without the revenue headwinds of political and the Olympics, 2017’s growth would be up 3.5%.
Zenith—Global Ad Market Growing 4.4% to $539B.
With positive economic signs at home and abroad, the advertising market is looking up. This year, according to the global forecast, the ad market is expected to grow a healthy 4.4% to $539 billion in total spending, according to a new report by Zenith Media, up slightly from Zenith’s June forecast of 4.1% annual growth.
Advertising giant GroupM says the U.S. ad industry will enjoy slightly better growth this year than it previously forecast, but the agency revised its global estimates downward, indicating lower expectations. For 2016, GroupM expects the U.S. ad market to grow 3.1% to $178.7 billion this year, up from its December estimate of 2.7% growth.
However, the agency says global ad spend will increase 4% this year to $529.1 billion, down from its previous estimate of 4.5% growth.
Looking ahead to next year, GroupM predicts global ad spend will surpass $1 trillion for the first time, but cautions that ad growth will be limited, with the global ad market up 4.3% and U.S. ad spending ticking up 3%. That more measured growth is in part because 2017 is an odd-year and there is no infusion of ad dollars usually associated with even-year events, such as the Olympics or U.S. elections.
Among media categories, GroupM says a healthy TV ad marketplace is fueling positive growth in the U.S. ad market and the agency revised its TV growth rate to 3.4% this year from a previously forecasted 2.3%. Next year, it expects TV ad growth to slow to 2.1%. Similarly, GroupM expects terrestrial radio’s ad market to grow 3% this year and slow to 2% growth next year, while out-of-home advertising will tick up 2% this year and 3% in 2017. And while digital is showing the highest rates of growth (7.7% this year and 8.1% in 2017), GroupM notes that it is slowing.
Sizing up the U.S. market, the report notes: “The combination of global economic headwinds coupled with moderate domestic growth as well as continued procurement pressure to extract media efficiencies and cost savings will confine ad market potential to its current low-single digit growth levels.”
Among ad categories, GroupM says that most major sectors decreased U.S. ad spending in 2015, with the notable exceptions being pharmaceuticals, travel/tourism, leisure and apparel/accessories, which increased their ad outlays.
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Local media advertising will grow at a consistent clip over the next five years, increasing at a compound annual rate of 4.2%, according to the spring update of BIA/Kelsey’s U.S. Local Advertising Forecast. The estimate is for total local advertising to reach $172.2 billion by 2020.The totals will be driven by what the firm calls “exceptional increases” in mobile and social advertising, “continued strong” political advertising in even-numbered years and overall growth in the U.S. economy.
The updated outlook calls for online/digital advertising revenues to be stronger than originally predicted, climbing at an annual rate of 12.8% from 2015-20. But traditional advertising revenues will hold their own with flat revenues forecast during the same period.
“While digital’s impressive growth, driven by mobile and social, comes mainly at the expense of traditional print media, it’s important to note other traditional media segments are maintaining a position in the local marketplace,” Mark Fratrik, chief economist, BIA/Kelsey, said in a news release. “National and local businesses still utilize a mix of advertising platforms, comprised of digital and traditional formats, capitalizing on the strengths of various media to get the message out.”
Zeroing in on the present year, radio will capture 11% of local media ad dollars in 2016, or $15.4 billion, to rank fifth out 12 media channels tracked by BIA/Kelsey. At 25%, direct mail will pull in the largest share in 2016, capturing one of every four local ad dollars, or $36.9 billion. Local TV is second with 15% ($21.9 billion), followed by newspapers in third place with 12% ($17.4 billion) and online interactive fourth at 12% ($17.3 billion).
By 2020, local online/interactive/digital advertising revenues will add up to $71.6 billion, representing 41.6% of total local media advertising revenues, up from 28% in 2015.
BIA/Kelsey defines local advertising as all ad platforms that provide access to local audiences for national, regional and local marketers. Its five-year forecast offers individual media breakouts for direct mail, local video, local over-the-air television, local cable television, out-of-home/OOH video, newspaper, online, radio, mobile, directories, social and local magazines.
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As marketers reorder budgets to invest more heavily in digital media advertising, the shift stands to cost television painful losses in both share of budgets and total ad spending.
After a record-setting 2015 for new vehicle sales, automotive continues to accelerate in February 2016, according to J.D. Power & Associates. The market research company predicts that the No. 1 advertising category will see an 8.1% increase in sales this month vs. last February, with 1,046,700 vehicles moving off lots, up from 968,316 last year.